An adaptive financing model for the corporate sector under phase asymmetry of the economic cycle

Анотація

Introduction. Corporate-sector financing in Ukraine has increasingly exhibited the characteristics of a structural constraint due to phase asymmetry of the economic cycle, whereby the recovery of real output and business activity does not translate proportionally into the restoration of credit supply and long-term investment resources. Under wartime conditions, this asymmetry is reinforced by higher risk premia, shorter financing maturities, banks’ conservative risk appetite, and the reallocation of liquidity toward low-risk assets. As a result, the gap widens between firms’ demand for working and investment capital and the financial system’s effective capacity to provide funding at prices and maturities consistent with recovery dynamics. Purpose. The article aims to provide a theoretical rationale and conceptualization of an adaptive model of corporate-sector financing under phase asymmetry of the economic cycle, designed to align financial conditions with the recovery trajectory of the real sector. Methods. The study draws on systemic and institutional–macrofinancial approaches to analyzing the interaction between the business and financial cycles. It applies a structural–dynamic analysis of non-financial corporations’ financing indicators for 2013-2024 (credit depth, cost of credit, the share of overdue debt, the central bank refinancing rate, and the interest-rate spread), complemented by a comparative interpretation of financial-support regimes across different phase configurations of the cycle. The conceptual framework of the adaptive model is built on the principles of countercyclicality, institutional coordination, risk sharing, and rule-based switching of instruments with predefined exit conditions. Results. The findings reveal a persistent long-term trend of structural contraction in the credit-financing channel: the ratio of loans to non-financial corporations to GDP declined from 46.1% in 2013 to 11.35% in 2024, accompanied by inertial credit recovery even during expansion phases and sustained elevated risk premia. The results further show that, in crisis phases, the cost of credit adjusts faster and more strongly than it normalizes during recovery, generating asymmetric monetary transmission and constraining firms’ investment activity. The article substantiates an adaptive financing model as a regime-based system that combines bank and non-bank channels, interest-rate subsidization and credit-guarantee instruments, mobilization of “long” capital through institutional investors and capital markets, and war/political risk insurance as a mechanism for compressing risk premia. The proposed model entails countercyclical expansion of support during shock phases and a gradual, rule-based withdrawal of stimulus during growth phases, thereby creating preconditions for restoring investment flows and advancing structural modernization of the economy.

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