Alternative scenarios for the development of ukraine’s agro-trading logistics system in the context of global turbulence

Анотація

The article examines the transformation of the logistics system of Ukrainian agro-trading under the influence of the full-scale war and geopolitical turbulence, which led to the blockade of Black Sea ports, the destruction of transport infrastructure, and a sharp increase in logistics costs. The aim of the work is to develop and compare alternative scenarios for agro-logistics development under high uncertainty. Three scenarios are proposed: basic – adaptation of existing railway, road and Danube routes with the potential to restore exports to 60–70% of the pre-war level; optimistic – creation of multimodal hubs, modernization of border infrastructure, digitalization of logistics, which can increase exports to 80–90%; pessimistic – escalation of hostilities and blockade of land crossings with a drop in exports to 30–40%. A comparative assessment of the scenarios based on the criteria of sustainability, financial accessibility, risks to the continuity of supply, and dependence on external factors showed that the optimistic scenario is the most promising but requires significant capital investments and broader international coordination. The practical value of the study lies in identifying priority areas for diversifying routes, developing Danube ports, harmonizing customs procedures with the EU, and stimulating public-private partnerships. The article argues for the need to develop multimodal logistics in Ukraine, modernize border infrastructure, diversify transport routes, and intensify and expand international cooperation in agri-logistics. It is argued that ensuring the resilience of logistics chains in times of turbulence should be a priority for both agricultural companies and government authorities. The proposed recommendations serve as the basis for formulating an adaptive logistics policy to restore the export potential and economic security of the agricultural sector. Keywords: agrotrading, logistics system, transport infrastructure, agricultural sector, export, transport logistics, agri-food market, infrastructure.

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