ECONOMIC AND LEGAL TRENDS OF THE TRANSFER OF DUAL-USE TECHNOLOGIES IN THE CONDITIONS OF GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICT

Анотація

Novikova I.E. ECONOMIC AND LEGAL TRENDS OF THE TRANSFER OF DUAL-USE TECHNOLOGIES IN THE CONDITIONS OF GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICT Purpose. The aim of the article is to conduct a comprehensive economic and legal analysis of the trends in the transfer of dual-use technologies under conditions of global geopolitical confrontation and to formulate recommendations for enhancing the effectiveness of national policy, export control, and international coordination in this field. Methodology of research. The methodological basis is a systemic and interdisciplinary approach combining economic analysis, comparative legal methods, content analysis of EU and Ukrainian regulatory acts and reports of the European Commission, analysis of statistical data (Eurostat, State Export Control), case studies of the Ukrainian UAV market and a case study of the rapid development of Ukraine’s UAV sector. The theoretical framework incorporates concepts of international security, dual-use governance, and global technology regulation. Findings. The evolution of the EU export control regime for dual-use items is analysed and it is shown that the European Union is strengthening its role as a key regulatory centre in this field. It is established that the value of authorised exports of dual-use goods in the EU increased to EUR 57.3 billion in 2022, while the number of licence denials rose to 831, which indicates both an expansion of controlled exports and a tightening of risk filtering. It is demonstrated that the geo-economic confrontation between the United States and China generates new constraints on the transfer of sensitive technologies, affecting trade flows and regulatory policy and re-export risks. It is shown that the Ukrainian case is characterised by a unique dynamic: during the war, the number of drone manufacturers increased approximately twelvefold and the output of UAVs grew roughly one hundredfold against the background of a structural transformation of the defence-industrial complex. It is substantiated that this dynamic is combined with the selective liberalisation of imports of critical technologies and the strengthening of export control regimes, which necessitates the adaptation of national policy and mechanisms of international coordination in the field of dual-use technologies. Originality. The article for the first time offers an original integrated framework for analysing dual-use technology transfers, combining economic, legal, and geopolitical dimensions. It reveals new mechanisms through which global power shifts and EU regulatory evolution reshape national innovation systems and security-sensitive technology flows. The research substantiates a model of synchronised multi-level policy for countries operating under high-security constraints. Practical value. The findings can inform the development of Ukraine’s export control policy, its integration into European and global dual-use value chains, the improvement of national innovation and R&D support mechanisms, and the formation of sectoral strategies for UAVs, cyber technologies, surveillance systems, and other critical dual-use capacities. Key words: dual-use technologies, export control, geopolitical confrontation, innovation policy, national security.

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