Forecasting Ukraine’s UEFA Ranking in a Crisis Context: Regression Analysis to 2030

Анотація

Background and Study Aim. The performance of national football associations in UEFA tournaments reflects not only athletic success but also institutional stability and resource sustainability. Since 2014, and particularly following the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, Ukrainian football has faced unprecedented disruption, resulting in the decline of its UEFA association coefficient. This study aims to forecast Ukraine’s UEFA national association coefficient through 2030 using regression-based models, thereby identifying long-term performance risks under crisis conditions. Material and Methods. The study is based on secondary data from official UEFA sources covering the period 2014–2025, including national and club coefficients in the Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League. Linear and exponential regression models were developed in IBM SPSS Statistics 29.0 to forecast future coefficients for the 2026–2030 seasons. Model fit was assessed through R², RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and BIC values to ensure predictive accuracy and reliability. Only statistically significant models (p < 0.01) were included in the final analysis. Results. Both models demonstrated high explanatory power (R² = 0.987 for linear; 0.974 for exponential). The linear model was selected as optimal, with an average forecast deviation of 1.78%. The predicted trend shows a decline in Ukraine’s UEFA coefficient from 24.4 in 2025 to approximately 14.5 by 2030 (≈60% decrease), implying a drop in ranking from 23rd to around 32nd place. However, the model is univariate and does not account for exogenous variables such as geopolitical instability, financial investment, player mobility, or UEFA policy reforms, which may alter real-world outcomes. This limitation defines the scope of the statistical projection. Conclusions. Regression-based forecasting proved effective for analyzing long-term dynamics of national association coefficients under crisis. The findings highlight systemic vulnerabilities in Ukrainian football and the need for adaptive recovery strategies and international cooperation. The methodology can be applied to other sports systems facing political or economic instability to assess resilience and institutional performance.

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