STRATEGIC RESILIENCE AND INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT: HOUSING NARRATIVES AND THE "INDUSTRIAL FORTRESS"

Анотація

The ongoing full-scale conflict in Ukraine has created an urgent need to redefine national economic resilience through the lens of psychological drivers and structural adaptation. The present study investigates the manner in which consolidated socio-economic discourses contribute to the maintenance of investor confidence and the continuity of industry in circumstances of extreme geopolitical turbulence. The objective of the present study is to ascertain the causal relationship between the residential housing market and industrial investment, thereby establishing the "Great Reconstruction" narrative as a pivotal economic stabiliser. In order to achieve this objective, the investigation employs Robert Shiller's "Narrative Economics" to track how stories about EU integration and post-war prosperity transform into tangible capital flows. The methodology integrates a comparative historical analysis of Ukraine's transition against the 1991-1995 Croatian model with a quantitative assessment of official economic indicators from 2020 to 2024. Statistical analysis demonstrates that the residential sector functions as a psychological anchor, where a 21.1% growth in housing completions in 2024, totalling 9,759 thousand m2, directly signaled safety to industrial stakeholders. Consequently, the industrial sector demonstrated a remarkable response, with a record 32 new park registrations during the same period. The paper introduces the "Industrial Fortress" concept, which models industrial zones as autonomous units combining physical security, energy independence, and social connectivity. The findings demonstrate that Ukraine's EU candidate status accelerates institutional adaptation significantly faster than historical precedents, establishing the country as a strategic hub for European nearshoring. The practical value of this study lies in its analytical framework, which policymakers can utilise to employ housing trends as leading indicators for industrial planning. Consequently, the research provides a roadmap for securing continuous production and attracting strategic investment by leveraging the synergy between infrastructure stability and narrative-driven expectations.

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