USE OF ECONOMETRIC MODELS FOR ANALYSIS OF ENTERPRISE DEVELOPMENT ON THE EXAMPLE OF SEA TRADING PORTS

Анотація

The article considers econometric models for the purposes of analysis and forecasting of enterprise development. The characteristics of two-factor production functions are given: functions with fixed proportions of factors (Leontief function), multiplicative production function (Cobb-Douglas function), linear function, Allen function, functions of constant elasticity of substitution of factors (CES functions). They allow to connect the size of production results with the costs of enterprise resources: production assets and the number of production workers. The situations in economics for their use are given. For the analysis and forecast of development of sea trade ports two directions of use of econometric models are defined: first, studying of dynamics of cargo flows of sea ports; second, the assessment of the impact of resources on gross income. An overview of scientific research in these areas is given. The research method is statistical modeling of the Cobb-Douglas function, calculation of its parameters using the least squares method using Excel Solution Search. The object of research is the ports of Ukraine. The subject of the study is the impact of production resources on the development of these enterprises. Based on statistics the Cobb-Douglas function in the growth rate was constructed, the total shares of fixed assets, the number of employees in the income growth rate were calculated, the influence of intensive and extensive production on the income growth rate was analyzed. The shares of extensive and intensive income growth at the expense of funds and numbers were studied. Equilibrium development is characterized by equal growth rates of gross income and the volume of fixed assets. Using the equilibrium rate of capital investment, the company achieves the most sustainable development. The indicators of the actual, equilibrium rate of capital investment and their efficiency were analyzed. These figures are related to the coefficients of elasticity of the Cobb-Douglas function and the growth rate of enterprise resources. Application of Cobb-Douglas function allowed to identify the strengths and weaknesses of enterprises, to determine the conditions for balanced development and increase production efficiency. Calculations make it possible to forecast and analyze gross income or production volumes depending on the factors of production of extensive and intensive nature.

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