SPATIAL DISPARITIES AND LOCAL EQUILIBRIUM TRAPS: LABOR MARKET STABILIZATION IN RURAL COMMUNITIES IN UKRAINE AMIDST WAR

Анотація

This article proposes and substantiates the author’s conceptual model of the “military equilibrium trap” in the labor market of rural communities in Ukraine under conditions of full-scale armed aggression. The relevance of the study stems from the absence in the scientific literature of integrative approaches that would simultaneously account for spatial, demographic, institutional, and security factors destabilizing local labor markets, as well as the need for targeted tools to overcome self-sustaining, low-efficiency equilibria under martial law. The aim of the article is to develop a typologized model of military equilibrium traps and, based on it, to form a differentiated portfolio of anti-crisis measures to stabilize employment in rural communities. The research methodology is based on a synthesis of the provisions of new economic geography, the theory of institutional traps, and the concept of shock resilience. Factor analysis of three groups of determinants (demographic, economic, institutional) and additive normalization of indicators were applied to calculate a conditional vulnerability index. The results indicate the formation of five types of rural communities, each of which exhibits a specific “stuckness” mechanism: ranging from an absolute labor shortage and institutional collapse to a paradoxical structural imbalance between the competencies of IDPs and the needs of the agricultural market. It has been demonstrated that, under wartime conditions, the monopsony power of agricultural holdings intensifies, logistical gaps block even existing production capacity, and informal employment serves a dual function - as a necessary social buffer in the short term and as a structural barrier to legalization in the medium term. The article’s conclusions highlight the fundamental difference between the wartime trap and classic peacetime depression traps. A layered portfolio of anti-crisis measures has been developed, comprising six blocks differentiated by time horizons and implementing entities. The practical value of the article lies in creating an instrumental framework for developing targeted programs for post-conflict labor market recovery, taking into account the type of war trap faced by each specific community.

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