Foreign Trade of Ukraine in Wartime Conditions: the Status and Basis for Forecasting for a Post-War Perspective

Анотація

A generalization of the economic aspects of the prerequisites and course of the Russian-Ukrainian war and forecasting the scale of Ukraine’s losses as a result of the war and awareness of the world experience in developing and implementing post-war development policies using the example of the countries of Europe, the South-Eastern subregion and the Middle East constitutes a scientific and practical basis for the conclusion on the need to analyze foreign economic activity, in particular foreign trade as a component of the processing of the set of problems of post-war recovery of Ukraine. This article aims to conduct a comprehensive statistical study of Ukraine’s foreign trade and determine the priority tasks for ensuring the trends of its sustainable development as a component of the state policy of post-war recovery. To prove the legitimacy of the proposed approach and to visualize the analysis conducted, the article presents the results of a comparative study of Ukraine’s largest partners for eleven years: from 2013 to 2023; and a comparative analysis of the TOP-5 importers and exporters of Ukraine in terms of transactions with toll raw materials for the same period was conducted. The share of the largest exporters and importers of goods by regions of Ukraine and the share of modes of transport in the transportation of goods in foreign trade were determined for the last reporting year of 2023. To evaluate the effectiveness of the country’s foreign trade, indicators of export and foreign trade quotas were calculated, the latter of which, based on the final generalization, was forecasted for the short term. The analysis of Ukraine’s foreign trade activity in wartime conditions confirms the conclusions regarding a specific adaptation of the national economy to such conditions and the formation of an objective basis for the country’s further development. However, for this it is necessary to solve several problems: elaboration of a fundamental regulatory legal act – the Law “On the Post-War Recovery of Ukraine” – on the model of the “Marshall Plan”); completion of market reforms, in particular – democratization of the law enforcement system and the fight against corruption; determination of geographical and sectoral priorities for the development of foreign trade; consideration of the latest approaches to regulating foreign trade of the European Union, related to the next seven-year budget period of the EU; modeling the development of foreign trade of Ukraine using the concept and technologies-practices of anticipatory management as a regulatory regime of state recovery policy.

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