MACROECONOMIC SECURITY OF UKRAINE UNDER CONDITIONS OF WAR-RELATED CHALLENGES AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATIONS

Анотація

A comprehensive analysis of the transformation of Ukraine’s macroeconomic system under wartime challenges and structural restructuring during 2022–2025 was conducted, with a further forecasting horizon extending to 2030. The study examines the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators, including gross domestic product, inflation, budget deficit, public debt, balance of payments, and international reserves. Particular attention is paid to changes in the structure of gross value added, the growing role of the defense-industrial complex, the transformation of foreign trade flows, and the increasing dependence on international financial assistance. Scenario modeling of macroeconomic security for the period 2026–2030 was carried out using baseline, adaptive, and crisis development scenarios. The resilience of the fiscal and monetary systems was assessed through stress testing, and the conditions for transitioning to a model of recovery-driven economic growth were identified. The results make it possible to outline critical risk zones and to formulate strategic guidelines for long-term macro-financial stabilization.

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