Independence of Central Banks in Commodity Economies

Анотація

This article introduces the hypothesis that resource-rich countries display a low degree of central bank independence (CBI). This hypothesis is proven based on multivariable regression, but the influence of resource factors is not considered strong enough compared with previous inflationary experience and the characteristics of the political regime. It stresses that the impact of the commodity wealth factor on CBI choice is direct (through the share of commodity exports in total export) and indirect through the lower level of democracy in commodities countries that feature more dependent central banks. Also, this hypothesis is proven based on the grouping of countries. Such grouping shows that despite a general tendency of CBI increase in the world, a group of commodity exporting countries experiencing a substantially lower level of mean GMT-index, ECWN-index, and transparency-index resulted in lower CBI compared with groups of emerging markets and developing countries. Explaining these phenomena is rooted in features of institutional distortions in commodity economies, the specific structure of interventionist policy to overcome a "resource curse", and the specific role of the exchange rate and FX reserves in intertemporal macroeconomic policy.

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