Model of Security-Economic Transformations: The Context of Contemporary International Conflicts. Preliminary Evaluations

Анотація

Abstract Research background The 21st century has seen major shifts, particularly international conflicts impacting national economies. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, from Crimea’s annexation in 2014 to a full-scale war in 2022, has reshaped security-economic dynamics. Hybrid wars require rethinking classical models of military spending and growth. Building on prior research (Berezka, Kovalchuk, 2023; Kovalchuk et al., 2023, 2024a, 2024b, 2024c), this paper stresses the need for dynamic analytical tools to guide post-war recovery strategies. Purpose This study aims to identify the causal impact of military expenditure on GDP, general government spending, and civilian expenditures in Israel, Ukraine, and Russia during 2014–2024 under conflict, sanctions, and instability. Research methodology A two-stage econometric approach was applied using time series data. ADF tests assessed variable integration; Johansen cointegration tested long-run relationships among military, civilian, and total government expenditures and GDP. Results We analyzed the links between military, civilian, and total government spending and economic growth in Israel, Ukraine, and Russia (2014–2024), revealing patterns that can guide postwar recovery and resource allocation in conflict-affected countries. Novelty The study shows that defensive operations, active defense, and military aggression generate distinct fiscal multipliers and spending-growth patterns, providing new insights for postwar policy planning.

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