Budgetary provision of targeted social transfers: institutional transformation and development trends

Анотація

Introduction. In the context of martial law, growing socio-economic instability, and increasing pressure on public finances, the issue of budgetary provision of targeted social transfers has acquired strategic importance. The transformation of Ukraine’s social protection system is taking place against the backdrop of the need to enhance the efficiency of budget resource redistribution, improve verification mechanisms for social payments, and ensure the state’s fiscal sustainability. Particular relevance is attached to the synergy between institutional reforms, digitalization of the social sphere, and optimization of the balance between categorical and targeted budgetary support mechanisms. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to conduct a comprehensive study of the budgetary provision of targeted social transfers in Ukraine under martial law, to identify the institutional and fiscal determinants of their transformation, to analyze structural and dynamic changes, and to formulate development guidelines for the social protection system. Methods. The research applies the dialectical method of scientific inquiry, methods of theoretical generalization and systematization, structural-dynamic and comparative analysis, analysis of regulatory and legal acts, graphical modeling, and economic-statistical trend extrapolation. Forecast calculations are carried out using an inertial trend-based approach and linear regression methods. The methodological framework is grounded in the theory of public finance, institutional economics, and the concept of the social state. Results. The article substantiates the economic essence of targeted social transfers and distinguishes them from categorical payments. The regulatory framework and institutional foundations of the verification of state social payments are analyzed. Based on empirical data of the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine for 2018-2025, the dynamics of social and intergovernmental transfers are assessed, and structural shifts in the ratio between targeted and categorical expenditures are identified. A medium-term forecast of the share of targeted transfers for 2026-2027 is developed, indicating the formation of an upward trajectory in their development. The generalization of European experience allows substantiating the expediency of combining status-based and targeted approaches in social policy. It is demonstrated that institutional modernization of the social protection system should be based on digitalization, integration of registries, and risk-oriented monitoring mechanisms.

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