THE INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY SYSTEM IN THE AGE OF DE-DOLLARISATION AND DIGITISATION

Анотація

The purpose of this article is to analyse the transformation of the global monetary and financial system and assess the gradual decline of the US dollar's role in international finance, taking into account the implications for Ukraine. Methodology. The study uses economic analysis and comparative statistics to examine macroeconomic imbalances; a systemic and political-economic approach to analyse the politicisation of the dollar; structural analysis and comparison of international practices to study the processes of trade de-dollarisation; historical and economic methods to assess the monetary experiments of the Federal Reserve System; institutional and forecasting approaches to analyse the digitalisation of the financial sector. Scenario modelling and expert assessments were used to construct the scenario forecast. Results. Despite de-dollarisation initiatives and the development of digital currencies, it has been proven that the US dollar retains its leading position thanks to the depth and liquidity of its financial markets, the trust placed in its institutions, and the lack of viable alternatives. In the medium to long term, there is a possibility that the role of the EUR, CNY, digital currencies and regional currency blocs may increase, which could result in the formation of a multipolar currency system. A scenario forecast for the development of the global financial architecture has been proposed, incorporating neutral, optimistic, pessimistic and technological options. Among these, the most probable scenario is the neutral one, which is characterised by a gradual decline in the role of the dollar without any sharp changes. Practical implications. The results of the study can be utilised by scientists, government agencies, central banks, and financial institutions. For Ukraine, the potential benefits of these systems include the formulation of a currency diversification strategy, the management of international reserves, and the integration into new digital payment systems. These developments have the potential to contribute to increased financial stability and to the adaptation of the economy to the conditions of a multipolar and digitalised currency architecture. Value / Originality. The article offers a comprehensive scenario analysis of the future global currency system, highlighting the risks and opportunities for national economies in the context of de-dollarisation and digitalisation.

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