Trade Resilience, Sustainable Recovery, and Policy Priorities Under Compound Shocks: Evidence from Ukraine

Анотація

This study examines how Ukrainian enterprises of different size classes adapted their trade activity under the compounded shocks of COVID-19 and the full-scale war. The article addresses national economic resilience and sustainable recovery by examining how export and import dynamics changed among micro-, small-, medium-, and large-sized firms during 2015–2023. The methodology combines the logarithmic decomposition of intensive and extensive trade margins with a strategic positioning matrix based on labour productivity and the net-export coefficient. The results reveal marked size-based differences in aggregate trade-adaptation patterns. During the pandemic, microbusinesses shifted toward a quantity-led compensatory pattern, whereas during the war, medium-sized and large enterprises showed a stronger efficiency-led export pattern. Micro- and small firms displayed characteristics associated with technology-oriented adaptation, combining rapid labour productivity growth with negative trade balances, whereas large enterprises were positioned closer to the niche-exporter profile, supporting the balance of payments but showing signs of slower productivity growth. Medium-sized firms occupied a transformation zone, indicating unresolved adjustment pressure and continued dependence on trade restructuring. These findings suggest that enterprise-size heterogeneity can serve as an analytical basis for differentiated recovery policy. The results are relevant for trade-dependent sectors, including agri-food and food-processing systems, where recovery depends on technological upgrading, export capacity building, and the more effective conversion of imports into future export potential.

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