Efficiency criteria for monetary policy in Ukraine

Анотація

The purpose of this study is to develop approaches for assessing the effectiveness of monetary transmission in Ukraine as a systemic indicator of the ability of monetary policy to achieve its declared goals under conditions of extreme uncertainty. Special emphasis is placed on the need to adapt traditional analytical methods to new challenges associated with profound structural transformations of the economy, the impact of external shocks, and the evolving role of central banks in unstable environments.The research methodology includes a critical review of scientific literature, systems analysis of the transmission mechanism structure, modeling of an adaptive effectiveness metric, and elements of comparative analysis. The approach considers both the objectives and outcomes of monetary policy, accounting for delay factors, institutional inertia, sensitivity of transmission channels, and their interactions.The main outcome of the research is the development of a conceptual approach to evaluating monetary policy effectiveness, based on the perception of the financial and economic system as a filtering mechanism designed to smooth internal and external shocks, within which the monetary regulator and transmission mechanism operate (referred to as the “managed shock filtering” concept). The proposed coefficient, through time-varying weights, allows adapting to modifications in monetary goals and principles by operating the sets of monetary instruments and targets, while penalizing the dispersion of instruments to ensure a minimum necessary and predictable policy approach.The practical application of the results lies in the use of the proposed approaches for analyzing the policies of the National Bank of Ukraine and other central banks under crisis or extreme uncertainty, particularly for developing adaptive monetary rules, communication strategies, and more resilient models for forecasting the impact of monetary impulses.The study summarizes the directions for improving the proposed framework, including the application of structural economic models and benchmarking approaches. It is also emphasized that the prerequisites for changing transmission efficiency may lie both within and beyond the scope of macro-financial regulation.

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