DYNAMICS OF STATE FUNDING FOR HIGHER EDUCATION IN UKRAINE: CHALLENGES OF INFLATIONARY PRESSURE AND PROSPECTS FOR HUMAN CAPITAL RECOVERY

Анотація

The issue of state funding for higher education in Ukraine is becoming increasingly important in the context of inflationary instability and structural transformations in the economy, when human capital determines the potential for post-war recovery and long-term growth. The purpose of this article is to comprehensively assess the dynamics of budgetary support for the university system in real terms, taking into account the inflation factor and identifying its impact on the ability to reproduce human capital. The methodological basis of the study consists of methods of comparative and structural-dynamic analysis, an index approach to adjusting nominal indicators, calculation of an integral indicator of real financial capacity, as well as scenario modelling of possible trajectories of funding development. The calculations show that the nominal growth of budget allocations during the period under review does not reflect real financial dynamics, since the accelerated depreciation of the currency led to a significant reduction in the purchasing power of expenditures. The phased nature of the transformation of financial support has been identified, characterised by initial inflationary erosion, a period of relative stabilisation and a subsequent decline in real resources during the period of military challenges. It is argued that the reduction in per capita expenditure on education and the change in the ratio between general and special funds create structural risks for ensuring the accessibility and quality of higher education. It has been shown that increased dependence on extrabudgetary sources of funding effectively transforms the resource provision model, shifting the financial burden to households and other stakeholder groups. The practical value of the results obtained lies in the possibility of using the proposed tools for objective monitoring of the real financial capacity of the higher education system and justification of budget policy parameters in conditions of macroeconomic instability. The developed approach can serve as an analytical basis for making strategic decisions on restoring university infrastructure, optimising the financing structure and ensuring the sustainable development of human capital as a key resource for the country's economic modernisation.

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