A Comparative Analysis of Demographic Security of Ukraine and EU Countries as a Component of Economic Security

Анотація

The article is dedicated to a comparative analysis of the demographic security of Ukraine and EU countries. It is proved that human capital is an indispensable foundation for ensuring fiscal stability and the productive potential of the national economy. The transmission mechanism of transforming demographic threats into economic imbalances through their impact on the labor market structure, tax base, and social burden is revealed. A comparative analysis of the demographic situation in Ukraine and EU countries was conducted using a unified system of indicators (demographic dependency, population reproduction, migration processes) across two time periods: before 2022 and after the start of the ongoing war. It was found that in the pre-war period Ukraine was moving within the general European trend of population aging, but had poorer indicators of human capital quality, particularly in terms of health status and labor productivity. It has been found that the war has caused a shock disruption of trends: while EU countries compensate for aging through migration and technology, Ukraine faces a critical contraction of the labor market, an increase in demographic pressure, and a decline in the total fertility rate. Attention is drawn to the fact that in the context of intensified global competition for human capital, preserving and developing demographic potential becomes a key factor in national sovereignty and Ukraine’s economic independence. The necessity of implementing a dual-vector strategy to counter demographic threats is substantiated, which includes: stimulating repatriation (preferential loans, grant programs, recognition of qualifications); structural adaptation of the economy (shifting focus from Lifespan to Healthspan, production automation, selective migration policies). It has been shown that the war has transformed Ukraine’s demographic crisis from an evolutionary one, typical for the EU, into an existential one, and that restoring economic security is impossible without implementing a preventive State strategy for demographic development.

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