The Risk Assessment Model for Resistant Behavior of a Metal Trading Company

Анотація

The high turbulence in the operations of modern metal trading companies in Ukraine, caused by military actions, destruction of industrial, logistical, and energy infrastructure, export restrictions on certain types of metal products, and fluctuations in demand in domestic and international metal product markets, creates an environment of elevated risks that necessitates the development of modern tools to support managerial decision-making in terms of resilient behavior. The aim of this research is to develop a model for assessing the risk of resilient behavior in a metal trading company, designed for use under changing external conditions to evaluate risk levels in the dynamics and structure of metal product assortment clusters. Scientific sources on risk management have been systematized and analyzed. It is argued that the available sources can only be partially suitable for managing the risks associated with resilient behavior in metal trading companies. The inclusion of indicators such as demand forecast error, inventory obsolescence level, inventory turnover, market share, GAP – price indicator, and marginal income into the risk assessment model of a metal trading company’s resistant behavior has been determined and economically substantiated. A risk assessment model for the resistant behavior of a metal trading company has been developed, based on the systematic identification of key risk indicators that reflect the resilience of core business processes and designed for use under changing external conditions to diagnose the risk level dynamically and within the structure of metal product assortment clusters. For each indicator, the impact on the risk of resistant behavior has been formalized by constructing logistic functions, which allows for accurately representing the nonlinear nature of the system’s response to deviations of indicators from critical values and ensures their normalization within a single range. For the practical implementation of the model, a scale has been proposed for interpreting the integral indicator of resistive behavior risk in a metal trading company, the use of which allows identifying absent, low, moderate, significant, and critical levels of such risk.

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