Shift in general travel preferences of urban residents during wartime: A Kharkiv case study

Анотація

Abstract The 2022 invasion of Ukraine fundamentally redefined Kharkiv’s mass transit systems primarily through the lens of daily public commutes and transport services coming under substantial military pressure. This paper makes an attempt at combining revealed preference data with a stated preferences experiment as deeply as wartime impacts have shocked the modal preferences among Kharkiv urban transportation users. A survey conducted on 326 respondents found that there was a i change in the mode share-split: private cars, taxi services, micromobility increase their shares even when city mass transits were free during the conflict period. To numerically express this shift, an ordered logit model together with a multinomial logit model were estimated under Full-6 choice sets assumption. The ordered logit model of attractiveness demonstrated that, instead of travel and cost, the safety, reliability, and comfort became central to how respondents evaluated transport modes whilst the multinomial model confirmed the empirical use of urban transport modes. These results suggest that in crisis contexts urban mobility decisions are shaped less by economic considerations and more by autonomy, exposure, and risk management. The paper can be a substantiation to policy implications for post-war reconstruction and public transport resilience in conflict-affected cities.

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