Centres of intersectoral interaction in the economy of Ukraine and the potential for the propagation of multiplier effects

Анотація

In the context of globalisation, intensifying external economic challenges and growing instability in world markets, the capacity of a national economy not only to generate but also to effectively disseminate multiplier effects through the system of internal intersectoral linkages becomes particularly important. This determines the need for an in-depth analysis of the structure of Ukraine’s economy from the perspective of identifying key nodes of interaction and assessing their role in the formation of value added and economic growth. The purpose of the article is to identify the centres of intersectoral interaction in the economy of Ukraine and to provide a comprehensive assessment of the potential for the dissemination of multiplier effects based on the analysis of output and gross value-added multipliers using the input-output analytical framework. The methodological basis of the study is formed by the approaches of input-output analysis, which make it possible to quantify the direct and indirect effects of interaction between sectors and to determine their contribution to the formation of the final economic outcome. The article groups economic sectors according to their functional role in the dissemination of economic effects, which made it possible to distinguish industrial-production, infrastructure-service and resource-raw-material sectors as key elements of the structural core of the economy. It is established that industrial sectors are characterised by the highest multiplier values, which indicates their leading role in generating chain effects. At the same time, it is demonstrated that a significant share of the generated multiplier effects is lost as a result of their externalisation through import-dependent production linkages. This leads to a decrease in the efficiency with which output growth is transformed into an increase in domestic gross value added. Additional constraining factors include a high level of import dependence in intermediate consumption, structural fragmentation of domestic value chains, and the dominance of raw-material specialisation in certain sectors of the economy, which limits the depth of processing and reduces multiplier potential. Based on the results of the study, directions of economic policy aimed at activating internal intersectoral linkages are substantiated, in particular by stimulating the development of medium- and high-technology processing sectors, supporting production localisation, reducing import dependence and forming integrated production chains.

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