THEORETICAL CONCEPTUALIZATION AND ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROGRESS SCENARIOS

Анотація

Ivashchuk I.O., Zapukhlyak V.Z. THEORETICAL CONCEPTUALIZATION AND ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROGRESS SCENARIOS Purpose. The aim of the article is a theoretical substantiation of the scenario approach to global economic progress and development of probable scenarios with subsequent assessment of the integral index of global economic progress for each of them. Methodology of research. An interdisciplinary approach to achieving the set goal was used in the study, in particular: logical and theoretical method and abstraction were used for the theoretical substantiation of the scenario approach to global economic progress; scenario analysis method – for the identification and structuring and classification of scenarios of global economic progress; comparative method was used for comparison of scenarios; analysis and synthesis – for the isolation of the main components of global economic progress; economic and statistical analysis – for the assessment of the integral index of global economic progress and identification of stress points in each scenario. Findings. The relevance of scenario analysis in the study of global economic development is theoretically substantiated and individual scenario models are analysed. Alternative scenarios of global economic progress are proposed and their basic characteristics are revealed. The probabilities of each scenario are substantiated. A comparative assessment of the impact of key components of global economic progress in different scenarios is carried out, their asymmetric nature is confirmed and their priority is determined. An integral index of global economic progress is proposed for different scenarios and its evaluation and analytical interpretation are carried out. The existence of stress points in each scenario is argued. Both hard and soft stress points that reduce the effectiveness of scenarios are identified. It is confirmed that the most optimal in modern conditions is the hybrid scenario, and for the long-term perspective, the neointegration scenario. Originality. Theoretically substantiated is a conceptual approach to conducting scenario analysis of global economic progress, which integrates structural components, takes into account their priority and allows identifying both development scenarios and critical points of regression of scenarios. The author's typology of scenarios is proposed, the integral progress index is estimated and hard and soft stress points in scenarios of global economic progress are calculated. Practical value. A toolkit for strategic planning of global economic development is created, which allows to assess not only the direction of development of the global economy, but also specific institutional, technological and social factors that determine global economic progress. The research results can be used in forecasting studies, in scientific activities and in the educational process. Key words: world order, globalization, global development, global economic progress, scenario modelling, multipolarity, fragmentation, deglobalization, neointegration, human development, institutional coherence, integral index, stress points.

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