Ekonometryczna ocena wpływu finansowania innowacji na wzrost gospodarczy w Polsce

Анотація

This article examines the impact of innovation financing on Poland’s economic growth between 2010 and 2022. The study was conducted using multiple regression, where the dependent variable was GDP and GDP per capita, and the independent variables included indicators of innovation financing at the national and enterprise levels, including R&D personnel. The study results demonstrated a strong correlation between GDP and the change in service sector enterprises’ own funds allocated to innovation, as well as with national funds received from public institutions by industrial enterprises to finance innovation. A strong, direct relationship was also confirmed between Poland’s GDP and service enterprises’ own funds spent on innovation in the current and previous periods. A direct relationship between GDP per capita and service enterprises’ own funds allocated to innovation in the current period and state funding for innovation in industrial enterprises in the current and previous periods was also found. A direct relationship was also found between GDP per capita and service enterprises’ own funds allocated to innovation in the current period and state funding for innovation in industrial enterprises in the current and previous periods. The conducted research allowed the formulation of econometric models with high predictive power, enabling the forecasting of Poland’s economic growth trajectory. Scenario modelling based on variables related to innovation expenditures in the services and industrial sectors can be an effective analytical tool for assessing future GDP growth. The results of modelling quantifying the impact of innovation financing on macroeconomic indicators are crucial for decision-making at the national level. They can provide a substantive foundation for optimizing strategic documents and designing targeted innovation support programs.

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