LIMITATIONS OF WORLD TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS: MODELING AND VERIFICATION METHODOLOGY

Анотація

Abstract. The article is devoted to the modeling of limited technological progress and the methodology of testing this hypothesis. The concept of the potential for increasing the efficiency of production factors - the ratio of absolute reserve of efficiency improvement to its achieved level – is the basis of original theoretical model. This indicator acts as an argument of exponential function, which has properties similar to the properties of the potential itself. A differential equation in which the potential function shrinks at a constant rate is an elementary version of the model of limited technological progress. A "megawave" that begins in the infinitely distant past and ends in the infinitely distant future is the solution of this equation in the "potential - pace of technological progress" coordinate system. According to the authors, such a solution does not contradict the history of technological development. The Cobb–Douglas function has been chosen as the initial function for building the econometric model. Based on it, a linear model of long-term economic growth, consisting of second-order growth equations in successive short-term periods, is built. It is shown that the parameters of short-term equations can be determined by an iterative procedure using the method of dummy variables. At the initial stage of calculations, the years in which the condition of constant effect of scale of production is violated are determined. These years are chosen as moments of shift in the short-term function of output dynamics. Next, null hypotheses are formulated and Student's t-tests are applied for obtained parameters. According to the results of testing these hypotheses, it is determined for which adjacent periods a certain parameter should be the same. After that, the calculations are repeated. If it turns out that in each subsequent period the pace of technological progress acceleration decreases, then this can be considered a strong argument in favor of the hypothesis of its limitation. Several approaches to the generalization of this econometric model for the study of several countries are proposed.

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