INTERNATIONAL TRADE OF UKRAINE IN THE CONDITIONS OF MILITARY RISKS AND TRANSFORMATION OF THE WORLD ECONOMY

Анотація

The article analyzes Ukraine's international trade in the context of war risks and the transformation of the world economy. It is substantiated that war changes the architecture of foreign trade operations due to the destruction of infrastructure, disruption of logistics, the increase in the cost of insurance and lending, and the increase in country risk. It is shown that parallel global shifts (regionalization, market fragmentation, strengthening of geoeconomic blocs) cause the reorientation of Ukraine's trade to more institutionally protected markets, primarily the EU, and form structural changes in the commodity and geographical structure of exports. The risk architecture of Ukraine's international trade is systematized and key management responses to physical, logistical, financial, and institutional threats are identified. Based on the scenario approach, alternative trajectories of trade development (adaptive, integration, risk and recovery) are identified and it is proven that the stability of the trade system depends on the ability to combine security solutions with institutional adaptation and modernization of logistics. The conclusion is made about the need for a proactive trade policy aimed at diversifying export channels, increasing supply reliability and integrating Ukraine into transformed value chains.

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