COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN BUSINESS CYCLES OF THE WORLD ECONOMY

Анотація

Despite the significant amount of papers on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of the global economy, its place in business cycles remains unstated, that limits the ability to predict its impact on the global economy within cycle development theory. That is why this study focuses on the analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic dynamics and its place in the business cycles of the world economy. The study conducted a brief review and identified the main features of the pandemic impact on various sectors of the economy. The most probable directions of further development of the world economy are determined. The results of the study show that the pandemic has caused the great damage to some industries. However, significant progress has been made in the other fields that could be a major driver of economic growth in the 21th century. In the paper econometric models developed for analysis and forecasting of pandemic impact on economic development of different countries are considered. The article investigates the role of the modern pandemic in small, medium and long cycles. Based on statistics of some post-socialist countries, the place of the pandemic in the Kitchin and Juglar cycles has been demonstrated. Particular attention is paid to the periodization of K-cycles, as one of the most controversial issues in the theory of business cycles, and the authors’ vision of the place of the current stage of development of the world economy in long cycles is stated. The study of the place of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kondratiev's large cycles gives the authors reason to claim that it occurred at the end of the 5th K-cycle and significantly deepened the existing problems of world development, although it should be noted that some scientists believe that 6 The K-cycle has already begun. Although the scale of the decline in development is significant, studies of so-called "mini-cycles" pushed by the tightening of epidemiological constraints show that easing constraints is accompanied with a rapid economic recovery. The analysis show how soon we can expect a significant revival of business activity.

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