STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN ENTREPRENEURIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBALISATION: ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTIVE FORECASTING

Анотація

Efficiently functioning entrepreneurship has been considered at all times as an important condition for the de-velopment of a market economy. Business enhances a country’s security and competitiveness on the world stage in a globalised world. The phenomenon of entrepreneurship is a multidimensional and complex phenomenon. Business development is conditioned by many factors that stimulate or inhibit its functioning. Under such conditions, an urgent issue of modern science is to develop a methodology to identify structural changes in entrepreneurship, as well as to forecast possible variants of its development taking into account current changes in the market environment. The information base for our study was the reporting data on entrepreneurship development for 2010–2020, officially promulgated on the website of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. In writing the article, we used a system of methods that allow us to determine the structural changes in entrepreneurship in the context of globalisation best, as an example: scientific abstraction, analysis, hypothetical and logical methods, methods of absolute and comparative advantages. The index method was used to analyse the impact of the number of employees and labour productivity on the volume of sold products. To study the dynamics of structural changes in entrepreneurship in Ukraine and to forecast the corresponding indicators for 2023–2024 an adaptive forecast model of Holt was used. The implementation of the proposed methods and modelling tools allowed us to analyse the dynamics of changes in entrepreneurship in Ukraine and to forecast its further development. It was determined that a significant feature of the dynamics of the distribution of employees by types of enterprises is a clearly expressed trend of reducing the share of employees of large enterprises with an increase in the share of employees of medium enterprises and individual entrepreneurs with no significant changes in the share of employees of small businesses. The peculiarity of the dynamics of the distribution of products sold by types of enterprises is a clear tendency of a decrease in the share of products of large enterprises with the growth of the share of medium enterprises, small enterprises and individual entrepreneurs. At the same time, the shares of production of large and medium enterprises significantly exceed the shares of small enterprises and individual entrepreneurs. This ratio, in accordance with the received forecasts, also took place in the forecast period for 2023–2024. The analysis of structural changes in entrepreneurship allows some conclusions and suggestions to be made. Thus, in order to support the development of entrepreneurship, there is a need to form a critical mass of managers able to respond to changes in the external environment in a timely manner and to make effec-tive decisions. In the formation of public policy to stimulate business development, the relevant issue is the provision of preferential loans to business entities to upgrade fixed assets, which will significantly improve production and save entrepreneurial resources. In addition, an important issue is the attraction of human resources into entrepreneurship, especially those working on an innovative basis.

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