ANALYSIS OF METHODS FOR ASSESSING FORMALIZED TRENDS IN ECONOMIC DYNAMICS

Анотація

Globalization of the economy as the most important phenomenon of today is reflected in the generalized statistical laws, their main trends of manifestation and development must be taken into account when developing economic and social forecasts at all levels of management decision-making. The assessment of future states of objects, processes and phenomena is based on the already accumulated knowledge about the nature, properties and patterns of existing or anticipated trends in their development. The choice of method and specification of the mathematical model, determining the structure and components of the studied object, phenomena, establishing relationships between them, which will trace the patterns of change in the process of existence and development, is the main step in forecasting the dynamic characteristics of economic indicators. Sometimes the type of model can be determined based on a graphical representation of the dynamics of the dynamics of the series. But, even when the trend is known, it can be described by various functions. This point determines the use of several modeling functions to approximate the same time series, followed by the definition of the most successful model for predicting the dynamics of the indicator for subsequent periods. The correct choice of mathematical model determines the results of trend extrapolation. The optimal approach to solving this problem would be a preliminary analysis of the process under study, in fact, its internal structure and logic, the relationship with the external environment. The article analyzes the theoretical foundations and mathematical methods for predicting formalized trends in economic dynamics. The advantages and disadvantages of the basic mathematical models of forecast calculations of dynamic indicators are determined. The necessity of combining different mathematical methods of development of alternatives of forecast tendencies of development of economic processes, characterized by existence of difficult interrelations, as one of means of maintenance of verification of forecasts - the generalized estimation of reliability, accuracy and validity is substantiated.

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