ARCHITECTURE OF UKRAINE’S ECONOMIC RESILIENCE IN WAR AND RECONSTRUCTION: INSTITUTIONAL CONDITIONS FOR SCALING AI

Анотація

The article examines artificial intelligence (AI) as an infrastructural driver of economic resilience and productivity in Ukraine under conditions of full-scale war and post-war reconstruction. It analyses the institutional and economic conditions that enable AI diffusion across the real sector, its commercialisation as product-based solutions, and integration into export-oriented value chains. The study is based on the premise that AI should be understood not as a separate digital sector, but as a foundational technology shaping long-term competitiveness, productivity, and the capacity of the economy to retain value added. Drawing on recent data on Ukraine’s computer services exports, the article demonstrates that technology-intensive activities have maintained relative resilience during wartime shock and continue to serve as a significant source of foreign-exchange earnings. This highlights the macroeconomic importance of the digital sector through its contribution to external balance stability and the preservation of investment capacity under conditions of structural disruption. However, the long-term economic effect of AI does not arise automatically from IT services exports. A key challenge lies in the risk of remaining confined to contract-based service models with limited control over intellectual property and product commercialisation. In this context, the capacity for value capture, retaining income from AI-based products, intellectual property, and scalable technological solutions, becomes critical for sustainable revenue formation and domestic investment resources. The article proposes a seven-element institutional framework for AI development (“data – computing infrastructure – models – products – standards – liability – export”) representing a complete value-creation chain. The findings show that coherent governance of data access, computing capacity, trust standards, and liability rules is essential for enabling the commercial deployment of AI solutions, strengthening economic resilience, and supporting the transition toward stable export revenues and product-based income streams in the reconstruction period.

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