СтаттяЗовнішня публікація30 липня 2020 р.

Financial Sustainability Evaluation and Forecasting Using the Markov Chain: The Case of the Wine Business

Nataliia RekovaORCIDHanna TelnovaORCIDOleh KachurIryna GolubkovaORCIDTomas BaležentisORCIDDalia ŠtreimikienėORCID

Анотація

This paper proposes a framework for assessing the financial sustainability of a wine producing company. The probabilistic approach is used to model the expected changes in the financial situation of an enterprise based on the historical trends. The case of an enterprise in Ukraine is considered as an illustration. The Markov chain is adopted for the forecasting exercise. Using the Markov chain framework allows one to predict the probability of financial security change for several periods ahead. The forecast relies on the transition probabilities obtained by exploiting the historical data. The proposed framework is implemented by construction of the financial security level transition matrices for three scenarios (optimistic, baseline and pessimistic). The case study of a Ukrainian wine producing company is considered. The possibilities for applying the proposed method in establishing anti-crisis financial strategy are discussed. The research shows how forecasting the financial security level of a company can serve in anti-crisis financial potential buildup.

Класифікація

Домен

Physical SciencesLife SciencesSocial Sciences

Галузь

Environmental ScienceAgricultural and Biological SciencesEconomics, Econometrics and Finance

Підгалузь

Management, Monitoring, Policy and LawGeneral Agricultural and Biological SciencesEconomics and Econometrics

Тема

Business and Economic DevelopmentBanking, Crisis Management, COVID-19 Impact★Economic and Business Development Strategies

Ідентифікатори

DOI: 10.3390/su12156150

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