Military Tax in Ukraine as a Tool for Finansing the Needs of the Security and Defense Sector

Анотація

Purpose. Comprehensive assessment of the institutional, fiscal, and socio-economic effectiveness of military tax in Ukraine in 2014–2025 and scientific basis for the optimal scenario for its reform based on a multi-criteria analysis of alternatives. Method. The study employs historical-legal and comparative-normative analysis to systematize legislative changes in 2014–2025, statistical analysis of budget indicators and reports of the Accounting Chamber, and an expert survey with consistency verification using Kendall’s coefficient of concordance. Alternative reform scenarios are evaluated using the TOPSIS multi-criteria decision-making method, including the construction of a decision matrix, determination of weight coefficients, and calculation of the closeness index to the ideal solution. The robustness of results is tested through sensitivity analysis, scenario modelling, and Monte Carlo simulation. Findings. The study identified contradictions between the legal status of the levy and its actual tax nature. Legislative changes in 2024–2025 strengthened its fiscal role, turning it into an important source of domestic resource mobilization. Multi-criteria modelling using the TOPSIS method showed that the most balanced reform scenario is A5 (progressive scale and a special defence fund). Kendall’s concordance coefficient (W = 0.735) confirmed the consistency of expert assessments, while sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation (5,000 iterations) demonstrated the robustness of the results. Practical implications. The findings provide an analytically grounded basis for improving Ukraine’s defence taxation policy under wartime conditions. The proposed reform framework ensures a balance between fiscal mobilisation capacity, social justice, legal certainty, and transparency of public finance management. The applied multi-criteria evaluation methodology may be used by policymakers in designing amendments to tax legislation and in shaping strategic decisions regarding sustainable defence financing. Paper type. Theoretical article.

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