Use of “Map-Schemes” of Connections of Economic Processes as One of the Options to Improve State Forecasting

Анотація

Annotation. Introduction. Current trends of the rational use of financial resources also provoke the modernization of approaches and methods for state forecasting. The imperfection of the existing methods causes the significant differences between the planned data and the realities of life. Therefore, the improvement of existing methodological approaches is the key to more efficient use of state financial resources. Purpose. One of the elements of improving the methodological apparatus of state forecasting is to take into account the links and their strength between some economic processes, such as: the dynamics of state budget revenues and some macroeconomic indicators of the country. An appropriate “map-scheme” of existing stable and moderate links between them, developed on the basis of the analysis of the calculated data, may become a basis for the development of propositions for the improvement of existing methods of state forecasting. Results. The strength of the links between some economic processes of the state, namely: the dynamics of state budget revenues (the constituents of which, according to the legislation of Ukraine, include the following elements: tax revenues, non-tax revenues, official transfers from foreign governments, revenues from operations with capital, trust funds and official transfers from local budgets), as well as the following macroeconomic indicators: gross domestic product, inflation rate and gross external debt have been studied. The use of one-factor dependence equations made it possible to determine the degree of strength of connections (absent, moderate, stable connection) between the studied relations, as well as to calculate the dependence equations. The results can be used to improve the methodological and forecasting state apparatus. Conclusions. The “map-scheme”, developed on the basis of estimating the one-factor dependence equations, clearly provides an opportunity to explore the dynamics of modern stable and moderate relationships between the constituents of state budget revenues and macroeconomic indicators of the state. Accordingly, when submitting proposals for improving methodological approaches in the field of state forecasting, it is advisable to pay special attention to the impact of gross external debt and official transfers from foreign governments on gross domestic product, as well as the impact of tax and non-tax revenues, the changing dynamics of which may significantly change its volume. Keywords: state forecasting; macroeconomic indicators; state budget revenues; “map-scheme”; economic process.

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