CROSS-CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF DYNAMIC INTERDEPENDENCIES BETWEEN SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND THE DEMAND FOR HIGHER EDUCATION IN UKRAINE

Анотація

The paper identifies time lags and provides a quantitative assessment of the interrelationships between key socio-economic indicators and the dynamics of enrollment in higher education institutions. The methodological framework is based on cross-correlation time series analysis using distributed lags, which made it possible to determine the delayed effects of demographic and economic factors on educational processes. The study revealed a delayed correlation between birth rates and the number of students, with a time lag of 16–18 years, as well as an inverse relationship between the unemployment rate among individuals with higher education and the number of applicants. A negative impact of high lending rates on the demand for higher education was identified, alongside a positive effect of the growth of vulnerable employment, which stimulates the pursuit of education. The practical significance of the study lies in the potential use of the obtained results for forecasting educational needs, improving public funding mechanisms, optimizing the network of higher education institutions, and developing an integrated «education–economy–security» strategy in the context of Ukraine’s European integration.

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