Modeling of Complex Systems Instability under Risks and Uncertainty

Анотація

An approach is proposed to study the relationship between water, food and energy resources, supply chains, social and medico-epidemiological spheres based on the multi-sectoral Lorenz model. The model combines in a one framework similarly described sectors of the economy, each of which is considered in terms of the level of productivity, the number of jobs and the level of structural disruptions. As a result of modeling the conditions of occurrence of deterministic chaos has been defined, and trajectories of change of social and economic factors which allow to reduce number of structural disturbances has been calculated. This is achieved by changing the ratio of supply and demand for jobs and products. Numerical study of the model has been allowed us to analyze how changes in the balance of supply and demand in interconnected systems lead to a chaotic stable attractor. It has been considered how the sequential transition of interconnected sectors to the mode of deterministic chaos is reflected in the integrated mode of operation when there is a kind of phase synchronization of self-oscillations of six connected generators.

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