From a transit zone to a demographic recipient: mechanisms of labor and educational assimilation of Ukrainians in Slovakia

Анотація

This study explores the transformation of the Slovak Republic from a country that historically functioned as a migration transit territory into a destination increasingly attracting Ukrainian human capital during the period 2022-2026. Particular attention is paid to the institutional mechanisms that facilitate the labour market and educational integration of Ukrainian migrants and to their broader socio-economic implications. The analysis also considers the potential demographic and economic risks for Ukraine associated with the long-term settlement of its citizens abroad. The research is based on a combination of general scientific and specialised methods, including comparative, statistical, structural-functional, institutional and analytical approaches. The empirical foundation of the study includes data from international organisations and national statistical institutions such as the OECD, European Commission, Eurostat, UNHCR, IOM, the Ministry of Labour, Social Affairs and Family of the Slovak Republic, ÚPSVaR, the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic and the National Bank of Ukraine. The interpretation of migration dynamics relies on quantitative analysis, comparison of key indicators (Slovak emigration since 2004 and Ukrainian migration during 2022–2026), and the evaluation of structural changes in the labour market, demographic composition, and educational mobility. The findings demonstrate that after joining the European Union Slovakia remained a donor of human capital for a prolonged period. The number of emigrants increased from 1,600 persons in 2004 to 4,400 in 2024. However, the situation changed significantly after 2022, when the country became an important destination for Ukrainian migration. The number of individuals granted temporary protection grew from 79,960 in June 2022 to 151,870 in February 2026, while the number of employed Ukrainian citizens increased from 1,223 in 2015 to 49,193 in 2025. Ukrainian workers have thus become an important component of the labour supply, particularly in manufacturing, logistics and service sectors, helping to mitigate labour shortages in the Slovak economy. At the same time, the research identifies a significant skill mismatch within the labour market. Approximately 46.2% of Ukrainian refugees are employed in positions below their qualification level, indicating a persistent problem of brain waste. Educational mobility also plays an important role in the integration process: in 2023 more than 10,000 Ukrainian students were enrolled in Slovak higher education institutions, representing 47.8% of all international students in the country. The economic contribution of Ukrainian workers is also substantial. In 2024 tax revenues and social contributions from employed Ukrainians exceeded €217 million, while their presence contributed an estimated 0.1–0.2% annual increase in Slovakia’s GDP. Overall, the results indicate that the Slovak Republic has largely completed its transition from a migration transit country to a state that actively attracts and retains Ukrainian human capital. While this transformation strengthens the national labour market and contributes to fiscal stability, it simultaneously creates significant challenges for Ukraine, including risks of depopulation, labour shortages and the long-term loss of intellectual resources.

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