Predicting budget robustness of Ukrainian local self-government during Russia’s war against Ukraine
Анотація
Russia’s war against Ukraine constitutes a severe multi-aspect challenge for Ukraine’s economy. Existing studies stress the positive role the 2014 decentralisation reform in Ukraine has had in combating war-related shocks. The paper contributes to this literature by exploring the factors behind the budget robustness (an ability to return to the pre-war levels of revenues) of Ukraine’s “hromadas” (self-governed municipalities). Our analysis shows that budget robustness positively correlates with some war-related factors (lesser exposure to fighting and occupation), administrative and demographic ones (population size) and social ones (higher voter turnout, higher numbers of cooperation agreements between hromadas).
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