Host Country Policies and the Prospects for the Return of Ukrainian Refugees

Анотація

The relevance of the research is driven by the large-scale forced migration of Ukrainian citizens caused by the full-scale war and the gradual shift of host countries from emergency temporary protection regimes toward managed migration models. In this context, the analysis of the prospects for the voluntary return of Ukrainian refugees and the role of host country policies in shaping return-related decisions becomes increasingly important. The aim of the article is to analyze the factors and scenarios of Ukrainian refugees’ return to Ukraine, taking into account the impact of host country policies. The empirical basis of the study consists of the results of a survey of 200 Ukrainian refugees conducted in September–October 2025. The data were processed using descriptive statistics and elements of quantitative analysis. The article examines the transformation of the legal status of Ukrainian refugees in EU and non-EU countries, including trends toward limiting universal access to temporary protection, introducing selective approaches, and encouraging integration. The survey results show that only about 43% of respondents definitely or rather plan to return to Ukraine, while a significant share either do not plan to return or remain undecided. Key determinants of return decisions include security conditions, economic prospects, living standards, as well as residence conditions and social support in host countries. Differences in return intentions are identified depending on the country of residence, age, region of origin, and level of integration. The research concludes that host country policies play a significant role in shaping Ukrainian refugees’ return decisions, while Ukraine’s state policy in this area remains insufficiently institutionalized and requires a comprehensive and differentiated approach.

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