STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL GUIDELINES OF UKRAINE'S MONETARY POLICY IN PERIODS OF STRUCTURAL SHOCK AND ADAPTATION TO THE CRISIS

Анотація

The article is devoted to the justification of strategic and tactical guidelines of the monetary policy of Ukraine in periods of structural shocks and adaptation to the crisis. Based on the research, scientific and practical principles for the development of strategic and tactical guidelines of the monetary policy of Ukraine in conditions of structural shocks and adaptation to the crisis have been developed, which are based on a simplified transmission structure in the fundamental core, but causally enriched with communication channels, trust, institutional and analytical channels. The advantage of the proposed principles is their holistic theoretical and empirical justification. The proposed guidelines contribute to increasing the effectiveness of the NBU's monetary policy and reducing macroeconomic volatility in conditions of structural shifts, and the expanded transmission model allows us to more adequately reflect the real logic of the impact of monetary policy on inflation and explain the difference between the crisis and stable phases of the economic cycle. The results of the research prove that during the period of the initial structural shock, the strategic focus of monetary policy should be shifted from active stimulation of lending to maintaining the stability of inflation and exchange rate expectations of economic agents. Tactical measures during the shock period should be aimed at limiting the amplitude of macroeconomic fluctuations and preventing secondary inflationary effects. Such measures include using the discount rate mainly as a signaling tool, active use of currency interventions to smooth out exchange rate volatility, as well as strengthening the role of the communication policy of the National Bank of Ukraine. In the phase of adaptation to the shock, the strategic guidelines of monetary policy gradually change in the direction from crisis response to the restoration of the standard inflation targeting regime. During this period, the interest-credit channel is reactivated, but its impact on inflation is realized with a characteristic time lag of 2–3 quarters. This necessitates a cautious and gradual adjustment of the policy rate, taking into account expected, and not only current, macroeconomic indicators. Tactical measures during the adaptation period should combine a gradual easing of monetary policy with maintaining financial stability and confidence in the actions of the central bank. Of particular importance is the consistency of interest rate policy with macroprudential instruments, which allows avoiding excessive pro-cyclicality of lending and maintaining the stability of the banking sector.

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