Domestic trade in Ukraine: trends, forecasts, structural changes

Анотація

The place of trade in the functioning of the market economy has been determined. A study of trends and structural shifts in the economy of Ukraine has been conducted based on a detailed assessment of the functioning of wholesale and retail trade in the period 2021-2024. An assessment of the dynamics of the turnover of wholesale and retail enterprises revealed an unstable growth in the value of actual turnover, the presence of seasonal peaks (2021 and 2023). The upper extremes are tied to the spring and winter holidays. The lower extremes are characteristic of the winter and summer vacation periods. These fluctuations are more pronounced for the wholesale trade sector. In 2022, there is a significant drop in March and a gradual slight increase until the end of the year (the magnitude of the decrease indirectly indicates a decrease in business activity in the economy and a decrease in consumer demand of the population in Ukraine). The first half of 2024 showed a very significant increase in trade turnover. The dynamics of the indices of the physical volume of trade turnover were studied with the subsequent forecast of values for the 2nd half of 2024. There is a clear decrease in volumes throughout the entire assessment period, with the exception of 2021 in the retail sector. The identified extremes on the graphs of the indices of the physical volume partially coincide with the extremes for the actual trade turnover (confirming seasonal fluctuations in the indicators). Inflationary influences do not allow us to explain the existing different trends in changes in the actual trade turnover and the physical volume of goods. The superposition of the graphs of the actual trade turnover and indices of the physical volume allows us to make assumptions about the presence of structural shifts towards a higher or lower price offer during periods of significant deviations on the graphs. Key problems of the functioning and sustainable development of domestic trade in Ukraine, including during the war, were identified. To further study the identified trends, there was a need to assess changes in the levels of financial capacity of business entities (production demand) and purchasing power of the population (consumer demand).

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