Budgetary policy in conditions of uncertainty

Анотація

Introduction. Ukraine is an example of extreme economic development in the world, where under the pressure of exogenous and endogenous factors, it is forced to build its own model of resilience and form political will to withstand the challenges of war and global changes. In such conditions, it is important to concentrate available resources, develop modern approaches to implementing budget policy, strengthen its coordination with all components of financial policy, as well as take into account economic and socio-political processes. The development of a certain tool for preventing shocks and risks has great theoretical, methodological and practical significance in the national and global dimensions, given the trend of increasing negative impact in the general genesis of uncertainty not only at the national but also at the global level. Problem Statement. Among the list of developments, there is currently a lack of scientific works that highlight modern approaches to developing financial and economic policy, in particular, the implementation of budgetary policy in circumstances of uncertainty caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war is insufficiently studied, and this determines the relevance of this study. The purpose is to clarify the features of the formation and implementation of budgetary policy in the conditions of uncertainty caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war. Methods. General scientific and special methods were used: analysis, synthesis, grouping, description, comparison, theoretical generalization, prediction, expert assessments and abstract-logical. Results. It is established that the uncertainty caused by the war has become a powerful challenge and a source of destabilizing processes that have spread to all spheres of public life, including the formation and implementation of budget policy. The structure of expenditures of the consolidated budget of Ukraine in recent years (in peacetime and during the war). In conditions of uncertainty, business activity has decreased and, accordingly, the tax base for the formation of revenues of all budget levels has fallen. The study has established that, in addition to the budget deficit, as an instrument of influence of the cause-and-effect relationship in conditions of uncertainty, the volume of public debt has also increased. The feasibility of changing the priorities of budget policy as a forced step to ensure the country's defense capability has been substantiated. A decrease in the volume of financing of social block expenditures has been established, which may affect the development of human capital. Conclusions. In the context of global changes and the growing level of uncertainty caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war, budgetary policy as a significant instrument for regulating socio-economic processes has encountered significant obstacles and threats. After all, the Russian-Ukrainian war has become the object of influence that has increased the level of uncertainty of socio-economic processes. The government is forced to search for sources of additional financing. In these conditions, effective budgetary policy can be the “lifeline” that helps ensure the country’s stability and its ability to respond to existential challenges in a timely manner, contributing to long-term stability and sustainable dynamics of the socio-economic development of Ukraine. It is important to get rid of financial dependence on international financial organizations, develop bilateral trade, and create a favorable environment for attracting investments during the post-war reconstruction period.

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