Statistical Methods for Assessing Price Risks in the Enterprise Management System

Анотація

The aim of the article is to substantiate the theoretical and practical foundations for using statistical methods to assess price risks in enterprise management. During the research, the essence of price risk was identified as the probability of actual price parameters deviating from the planned ones, which affects costs, revenue, profit, and the overall profitability of the enterprise. It is argued that under conditions of market instability, inflation fluctuations, and increasing uncertainty, price risk becomes systemic and needs to be integrated into the overall enterprise risk management system. The article also summarizes current scientific approaches to analyzing price dynamics, volatility, and forecasting, particularly using time series analysis, correlation-regression modeling, and scenario-based methods. It has been proved that statistical methods allow not only to track price changes, but also to quantitatively assess their variability, identify patterns, and determine the relationships between prices and a company’s financial results. The main tools for statistical assessment of price risks have been systematized, including analysis of dynamics, absolute and relative deviations, averages, variation indicators (variance, standard deviation, coefficient of variation), as well as correlation and regression analysis methods. Their informational and practical significance for making management decisions in pricing, cost planning, and shaping financial results has been substantiated. It has been found that combining statistical analysis, forecasting, and scenario modeling creates an analytical basis for moving from reactive to proactive price risk management. It has been shown that the results of statistical assessment can be effectively integrated into strategic, tactical, and operational levels of management of the enterprise.

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