Modeling of migration security of Ukraine: Scenario approach to optimization of labor and resource potential

Анотація

Purpose. To substantiate the impact of migration security on the formation and reproduction of Ukraine’s labour-resource potential and to develop a scenario-based approach to its optimisation, considering demographic and migration losses. <br>Methodology. The optimisation model of labour-resource potential is based on the integration of econometric analysis, scenario-based, simulation modelling and system dynamics approaches. The methodology is implemented sequentially: development of an information-analytical framework; identification of key influencing factors; elaboration of migration development scenarios; design of adaptive strategies. <br>Results. Achieving the target level of labour-resource potential by 2030 requires a positive migration balance, which necessitates a reorientation of public policy towards stimulating re-emigration and managed immigration. An effective migration security policy is defined as a комплекс of legal, economic, institutional, financial and innovative instruments. Three development scenarios are identified: optimistic (high reintegration), baseline (limited recovery), and pessimistic (demographic depletion). The optimistic scenario assumes large-scale return migration and employment recovery, whereas the pessimistic scenario implies deepening demographic losses and labour market segmentation. The key parameters shaping labour potential trajectories are the level of re-emigration, the intensity of external migration, and the effectiveness of public policy. <br>Originality. A scenario-oriented model for optimising labour-resource potential with consideration of migration risks is developed, along with a methodological approach to assessing the impact of migration security on the country’s socio-economic resilience. <br>Practical implications. The results can be applied in the formulation of state migration policy, the development of reintegration and human potential recovery programmes, as well as in strategic labour market planning under conditions of high uncertainty.

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