Ukrainian–Chinese Economic Relations Through the Lens of Post-War Reintegration of Territories

Анотація

The full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war has fundamentally reshaped Ukraine's external economic relations and significantly influenced the geopolitical and economic environment in which bilateral cooperation with the People's Republic of China is developing.At the same time, Ukraine's strategic course toward European integration and China's evolving global economic strategy have created new constraints and opportunities for cooperation.In this context, Ukrainian-Chinese economic relations require reassessment through the lens of post-war reconstruction and the reintegration of war-affected territories.Purpose.The purpose of the article is to analyse the transformation of Ukrainian-Chinese economic relations under wartime conditions and to assess China's potential role in the post-war reconstruction and reintegration of affected Ukrainian territories.The study aims to identify key opportunities, limitations, and geopolitical risks associated with bilateral cooperation, taking into account Ukraine's European integration commitments and China's cautious investment strategy.Results.The research demonstrates that despite maintaining its position as Ukraine's largest trading partner, China remains highly restrained in terms of foreign direct investment and large-scale infrastructure engagement.The findings show a growing trade imbalance in favour of Chinese imports and a declining share of Ukrainian exports to China.China's participation in Ukraine's economy is largely limited to selective projects, debt instruments, and cooperation with state-owned enterprises, while avoiding high-risk sectors and unstable regions.The study also reveals that Ukraine's role within the Belt and Road Initiative has significantly weakened due to security challenges, disrupted logistics routes, and limited political dialogue.Chinese involvement in post-war reconstruction is most likely to concentrate on agriculture, logistics infrastructure, and mineral extraction, including rare earth elements, under conditions of political stability and security guarantees.Conclusions.The article concludes that Ukrainian-Chinese economic cooperation in the post-war period will be shaped by a combination of geopolitical constraints, security considerations, and Ukraine's integration into the European economic space.While China may play a selective role in Ukraine's post-war reconstruction, its engagement will depend on ceasefire conditions, regulatory clarity, and the prioritisation of Ukrainian partners.A balanced and strategic approach is required to leverage potential benefits while safeguarding national interests and ensuring consistency with European integration objectives.

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