DEMOGRAPHIC SECURITY OF THE LVIV REGION: PROBLEMS AND RISKS OF ITS ACHIEVEMENT

Анотація

The demographic situation in Lviv region has been assessed, namely – the population number and density, birth and death rates, the natural increase, the causes of death, the average life expectancy, age and sexual structure, demographic load, the age of maternity, and migration movement of population, as for the administrative-territorial units. The main problems and risks concerning demographic safety of the administrative subdivisions of Lviv region have been pointed out. The factors influencing this were determined, namely: the demogeographic location, economic, social, cultural, religion and behavioral factors, as well as indirect relationships with foreign policy, state and military safety through the social-geographic location. The new model of the demographic behavior that is being formed in Lviv region is characterized by the prevalence of families with few children, the low level of early marriages and births, as well as the increase in the average age of giving birth, the high level of extramarital births, and the prevalence of the psychological motives of giving birth. The migration behavior took the new features of the movement of urban dwellers and residents of remote villages into suburban areas, that caused the deterioration of the demographic indices and the decrease of demographic safety level. The method of the determining the integral assessments of the levels of demographic safety, demographic threats, demographic risk, and demographic danger of the region has been revealed. The level of the demographic safety (danger) is expressed by the indicators, which normalization serves as the basis for the calculation of the integral index of the demographic safety of the region. The latter was calculated from the official data of the State statistical service of Ukraine and the Main statistical office in Lviv region. The regional features of the demographic safety of Lviv region have been determined, and administrative-territorial units were typified according to the levels and tendencies of their demographic safety. It was determined that in 2018 five districts (Brody, Zhydachiv, Peremyshliany, Radehiv, and Stryi) and four cities of regional significance (Boryslav, Drohobych, Morshyn, and Chervonohrad) were in the state of demographic danger (0,0–0,382), while Yavoriv district and the city of Stryi – were in the state of demographic risk (0.619–0.854). No single administrative-territorial unit of Lviv region were in the state of demographic safety (0.855–1), while all the other units were in the state of demographic threat (0.383–0.618). The optimizing measures were proposed for minimizing the demographic danger and lessening demographic threats in Lviv region.

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