THE EVOLUTION OF CLIMATE RISK INSURANCE: STRATEGIES FOR INCREASING RESILIENCE IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT

Анотація

The purpose of the article is to systematize and analytically summarize the transformation of the insurance sector under the influence of climate risks and identify mechanisms for increasing its financial stability in the face of increasing catastrophic losses. The study focuses on assessing changes in the loss structure, capital adequacy, the level of insurance coverage and the role of institutional risk redistribution instruments. Methodology. The analytical base was formed by comparing the financial indicators of insurance companies for the period 2015–2024 using aggregated statistical data from supervisory authorities and international analytical reports. A scenario approach was used to model the basic and stress trajectories of climate risk development. The assessment of stability was carried out through the calculation of the combined ratio, capital adequacy ratio and loss coverage index. Additionally, a comparative analysis of institutional mechanisms was used, in particular reinsurance, catastrophic bonds and public-private funds. Results. The obtained calculations showed that during periods of large-scale disasters, the combined ratio systematically exceeds the break-even level, which reduces the operating profitability of insurers. At the same time, the integration of scenario forecasting and the expansion of reinsurance coverage allow reducing the volatility of income and increasing the capital adequacy ratio. It is shown that a multi-level risk distribution model, which combines private and public instruments, significantly reduces the insurance gap and stabilizes the premium policy. Practical significance. The proposed approach can be used by insurance companies to adjust the tariff strategy, optimize reserves and form long-term development scenarios. For regulators, the results create a basis for improving mechanisms for guaranteeing and stimulating adaptation measures. Scientific novelty. The work offers an integrated model for assessing the stability of the insurance sector, which combines financial ratios, scenario modeling and institutional analysis within a single analytical circuit.

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