A model of Ukraine-EU partnership relations in the field of technological breakthrough: SWOT analysis and strategic priorities

Анотація

This article develops a model of partnership relations between Ukraine and the European Union in the field of technological breakthrough, based on a SWOT analysis verified by quantitative data from an integral model of the state's technological capacity. The methodological foundation comprises block indices of six analytical dimensions – digital, structural, productivity, human capital, capital base, and defence-industrial – calculated using Penn World Tables 10.01, SIPRI, World Bank, and IMF data for five countries (Ukraine, Poland, Estonia, Germany, Republic of Korea) over the period 2000–2023. According to the calculations, Ukraine's integral index of technological capacity in 2023 stands at 37.91 points, while the multiplicative breakthrough index is 24.03, which falls below the established threshold of 28.84. TheSWOT analysis identified the following: strengths include defence-industrial mobilisation (98.81) and the digital sector; weaknesses include critically low productivity (4.74) and structural transformation (7.84); opportunities include EU instruments (Horizon Europe, Ukraine Facility worth EUR 50 billion, EIC4Ukraine); and threats include a negative forecast trajectory for the capital block by 2030 (–51.1%). Based on the SWOT matrix, four strategic partnership vectors are formulated: SO (converting the defence-industrial advantage), WO (overcoming the productivity gap through EU programmes), ST (protecting digital positions), and WT (minimising capital collapse). The practical value of the study lies in specifying the implementation instruments for each vector and substantiating the priority of partnership in the structural transformation and productivity blocks.

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