Features of the Sale of Export Products of Agricultural Enterprises in the Conditions of Risks

Анотація

The article is aimed at modeling the sale of exported crop production and animal husbandry of agricultural enterprises in the conditions of risks. It is identified that agricultural activities are accompanied by a number of threats of socio-economic, financial, market, infrastructure, systemic, environmental and institutional nature; some risks have been exacerbated in recent years due to climate change and food price instability. It is proved that small agrarian enterprises are especially vulnerable to the problems of ensuring their means of livelihood, may experience difficulties in assessing and managing risks, and do not receive an appropriate effect from investment opportunities that can improve business and strengthen their sustainability. Several risks that accompany the agricultural sector of Ukraine and often become real threats to its socio-economic development are allocated as such that are the least taken into account by agricultural enterprises of various organizational forms and sizes. They are gathered to six groups (market; reduction in labor potential; systemic; loss of trust; political; legal). The method of fuzzy sets (fuzzy logic) is applied, based on the Matlab package and the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox module, within which a fuzzy logical classification and inference system is created. The fuzzy format of the calculation results is ensured by the two-step sequence of the formation of sets (phazification and dephazification). According to the results of modeling the optimal export volumes under the influence of external and internal risks, it is proved that ensuring large volumes of plant exports is accompanied by medium and high levels of market risks, medium and high risks of reducing labor potential and medium and high levels of market risks; ensuring large volumes of exports of animal products is accompanied by low and medium levels of market risks, medium and high levels of risk of reducing labor potential, high levels of market risks and high levels of legal risks. The proposed model is favorable for agricultural enterprises in the process of their economic activity in order to identify the strength of either positive or negative impact of risks and other hidden connections to predict and optimize their activities, which will allow to more clearly establish the strategic priorities of their activities and use resources more rationally.

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