FOREIGN TRADE OF UKRAINE IN 2021-2022: A VECTOR MODEL FOR ANALYSING THE CONSEQUENCES OF RUSSIAN AGGRESSION

Анотація

The article is devoted to the analysis of the impact of Russia's full-scale invasion on the structure and dynamics of Ukraine's foreign trade. The article proposes a vector model for analysing the initial data. The origin of coordinates in the space of trade flows of a certain country can be interpreted in two ways - depending on its geopolitical goal. For a country that seeks to increase its influence on the global economy, the origin of coordinates is a state of its zero global significance. From the point of view of a country that has chosen a course of isolation from the global economy, the origin of coordinates is a state of absolute autarky. The vector norm (length) of trade turnover (or export) will characterise the absolute value of the result of its efforts. The proposed model is based on geometric properties of vector sums and differences. The ratios of these values were used to construct two types of vector convergence coefficients. Convergence coefficients calculated by the sum method were determined as the ratio of the norm of vector sums to the sum of their norms. Convergence coefficients calculated by the difference method were determined as the ratio of the difference of vector norms to the norm of their difference. The more similar the structure of the compared vectors is, the closer to 100% the modulus of their convergence coefficients approaches. The analysis of Ukraine's foreign trade was carried out in several coordinate systems - on the plane of Exports - Imports, in the space of three groups of goods (capital goods, consumer goods, intermediate goods), in the space of countries and on the plane of Flows 2021 - Flows 2022. A comparative analysis of scalar and vector models has shown that the proposed model is the lower bound of the correlation between the shares of exports in Ukrainian foreign trade in 2021 and 2022. A comparison of relative indicators of the volume of domestic foreign trade calculated on the basis of two models has shown that the discrepancy between them is small and does not violate the order of countries in the ranked series. Convergence coefficients of trade with European partners have shown the importance of the group of intermediate goods. The coefficients of domestic trade with the vast majority of regions and countries were in the “red zone” - the volume of trade in 2022 decreased, and the two-year volume of imports exceeded the two-year volume of exports. At the same time, the export-import structure of Ukrainian trade changed little. The proposed vector model can serve as a tool in a wide range of international research, primarily of a geopolitical orientation

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