Demographic Security of Ukraine: Indicators, Level, Threats

Анотація

The article aims to identify the level of demographic security in Ukraine according to modern methodology, by comparing it with the integral thresholds and identifying the most influential threats in this area from the standpoint of social security.The authors defined a working list of demographic safety indicators, which may vary depending on the depth and objectives of the study. The paper identified the boundaries for safe demographic development, taking into account the experience of economically developed EU member states, which makes it possible to protect the vital interests of the security object. Thus, for each indicator, the scholars defined a vector of threshold values, particularly: upper and lower optimal value, upper and lower threshold value, as well as upper and lower critical value (for more in-depth studies) by using the t-test through shaping the probability density functions, computing the statistical characteristics (mathematical expectation, mean squared error and the coefficient of skewness) while using Student tables and a formalised description of the threshold values' vector for the characteristic distribution types (normal, log-normal, exponential one).The research identified the changes in the demographic security level by means of integral estimation with the use of the modern methodology, which involves the use of the multiplicative form of the integral index, combined valuation method and dynamic weight coefficients determined using the 'main components' and the 'slip matrix' methods. The authors carried out the integral convolution both for indicators and for threshold values, which allows comparing them in one scale to identify threats. The results of identifying the current state of demographic security in Ukraine and defining the changes in the integral index confirm its critical level throughout all years of independent Ukraine, which poses a significant threat to national security. Therefore, the article outlined the most important threats and ranked them according to the weight of influence. According to the detachment from the sustainable development level the most significant threats to demographic security of Ukraine are the ultra low net reproduction rate of population on 1 stalk, the high mortality rate of the population in general and the mortality of infants in particular. It was also established that the most influential regulatory factors on the level of demographic security are: the coefficient of depopulation and the total mortality rate of the population.

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