Strategic directions of human capital management in the agricultural sector in the context of current migration challenges

Анотація

The scientific article examines the theoretical, methodological, and applied aspects of the transformation of human capital in Ukraine’s agricultural sector amid military operations and intensified migration. The relevance of the topic stems from the deep personnel crisis in rural areas, the destruction of traditional mechanisms for reproducing labor potential, and the emergence of critical imbalances in the labor market, which directly threaten the state’s food and strategic security. The purpose of the study is to identify the leading trends in changes in human capital parameters in the agricultural sector during 2019–2024 and to scientifically substantiate the strategic vectors for reforming the personnel management system to ensure post-war reconstruction. The work employs a complex of scientific methods: system-structural, comparative, and statistical analyses, as well as graphical modeling. It is found that the war period was marked by a 13% reduction in the average number of people employed in the agricultural sector and a decrease in its share of total employment to 16.1%. It has been shown that the macroeconomic shocks caused by the war, in their behavioral consequences, resemble global climate and productivity crises examined in foreign literature, since they radically transform the population’s internal and external mobility. Using graphical analysis, a critical discrepancy emerges between the rapid growth in the scale of external labor migration (over 4.1 million people in 2022–2024) and the progressive narrowing of the internal workforce base in rural areas. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of a comprehensive architecture of strategic human capital management in conditions of uncertainty, which integrates five interrelated areas: stabilization (preservation of employment and social security), motivational and personnel (transformation of material and psychological incentives), educational and qualification (continuous learning and synergy with business), institutional and organizational (creation of regional HR centers and monitoring) and digital and adaptive (digitalization of personnel management). The formulated conclusions serve as the basis for developing flexible personnel management models to enhance the long-term competitiveness of agricultural enterprises. Keywords: human capital, agricultural sector, migration, labor migration, human resource policy, strategic management.

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