COORDINATED ECONOMIC RISK BASED ON ECONOMIC GROWTH MODELS

Анотація

The paper examines the theoretical and methodological foundations and practical approaches to determining the steady state of the economy, analyzing the trajectory of economic growth, and assessing the associated economic risk. In the context of global financial instability, increasing structural distortions, and internal macroeconomic imbalances, it is particularly important to develop scientifically sound approaches to determining the equilibrium state of the system. This allows for the timely identification of factors that cause deviations in the actual development trajectory from the theoretically optimal one, and for the assessment of potential risks to the economic security of the state. A steady state is seen as the ultimate goal of the transition process, toward which the economic system is moving under the influence of basic macro parameters: savings rates, population growth rates, capital depreciation, technological progress, and investment efficiency. Its achievement indicates consistency between the factors of production and the rate of resource accumulation, which ensures stable long-term growth without significant fluctuations. To model economic dynamics, both orthodox one-dimensional models and the author's multidimensional system of equations were used, taking into account the interaction between sectors, time lags, and the investment behavior of entities. This approach allows for a deeper exploration of the nonlinear nature of economic processes and identification of factors that influence deviations from equilibrium. A method for quantitative measurement of economic risk based on the analysis of the interval of capital intensity estimates over time is proposed, which allows tracking the stability of the economy to external and internal shocks. A mechanism for identifying a numerical measure of risk based on the behavior of the development trajectory has been developed, which makes it possible to predict the consequences of macroeconomic fluctuations. It has been determined that a high level of risk reduces investment attractiveness, weakens labor productivity, and undermines socio-economic stability. The results obtained can be used to improve the macroeconomic forecasting system, increase the effectiveness of state growth policy, and ensure the long-term stability of the economic system

Класифікація

Ідентифікатори

Схожі роботи